Some Polling Predictions for the 2012 Presidential and Senate Elections | ||||||
Website | Obama EV | Romney EV | Toss-up EV | D+I Senate | Rep Senate | Website Link |
Nov. 4, 2012 | 9:00PM | |||||
Gott-Colley | 291 | 234 | 13 | Site | ||
NYT 538 | 307 | 231 | 53 | 48 | Site | |
Princeton | 303 | 235 | 54 | 46 | Site | |
Electoral Vote | 281 | 206 | 51 | 52 | 45 | Site |
Votamatic | 332 | 206 | Site | |||
DeSart | 281 | 257 | Site | |||
RealClearPolitics | 201 | 191 | 146 | Site | ||
UnSkewedPolls | 227 | 311 | 52 | 48 | Site | |
FrontloadingHQ | 332 | 206 | Site | |||
ElectionProjection | 290 | 248 | 51 | 49 | Site | |
Median | 291 | 233 | 52 | 48 | ||
Nov. 5, 2012 | 11:00AM | |||||
Gott-Colley | 291 | 234 | 13 | Notes | ||
NYT 538 | 307 | 231 | 53 | 48 | ||
Princeton | 305 | 233 | 53 | 47 | ||
Electoral Vote | 294 | 220 | 24 | 51 | 45 | 4 Senate toss-ups |
Votamatic | 332 | 206 | ||||
DeSart | 290 | 248 | ||||
RealClearPolitics | 201 | 191 | 146 | 49 | 44 | 7 senate toss-ups |
UnSkewedPolls | 227 | 311 | 53 | 47 | ||
FrontloadingHQ | 332 | 206 | ||||
ElectionProjection | 303 | 235 | 53 | 47 | ||
Median | 299 | 232 | 53 | 47 | ||
Nov. 6, 2012 | Finals - 11AM | |||||
Gott-Colley | 304 | 234 | Notes | |||
NYT 538 | 313 | 225 | 53 | 48 | ||
Princeton | 312 | 226 | 53 | 47 | ||
Electoral Vote | 303 | 220 | 15 | 51 | 45 | 4 Senate toss-ups |
Votamatic | 332 | 206 | ||||
DeSart | 303 | 235 | ||||
RealClearPolitics | 201 | 191 | 146 | 49 | 44 | 7 senate toss-ups |
UnSkewedPolls | 263 | 275 | 53 | 47 | ||
FrontloadingHQ | 332 | 206 | ||||
ElectionProjection | 303 | 235 | 53 | 47 | ||
Median | 304 | 226 | 53 | 47 | ||
Final Results | 332 | 206 | ||||
Eight of nine prognosticators in this group correctly picked Obama to defeat Romney. Votamatic by Drew Linzer and FontLoadingHQ by Josh Putnam were right on the button. I'm not sure when Putnam arrived at 332 but Linzer was remarkably prescient with very little change since July! Congratulations to them and their colleagues that predicted an Obama victory. |